The organisation itself expects seasonal concentration to ease in the coming years. The difference between the weight of the third quarter, the busiest, and the first, the weakest, averaged 22.5 points between 2010 and 2015 and is forecast to narrow to 20.4 points in 2027. Although the improvement looks modest, it amounts to a structural change: more visitors in spring and autumn, more activity in winter and, with it, steadier jobs that depend less on the high season.
Not everything is good news. The same analysis warns of risks that could slow this evolution, among them energy costs, pressure on household budgets and the possibility of fresh disruption to airspace. Any of these factors could cool demand just as the sector tries to consolidate a less seasonal model.
In parallel, the European Commission presented a strategy for the sector on 4 November built on three pillars: managing visitor flows, developing professional skills and sharing tourism data. The initiative aims to give local authorities the tools to anticipate surges, to ensure workforces have the training that digitalisation and sustainability demand, and to make public and private decisions rest on information that is shared and comparable across member states.
Destinations are starting to move. Some establishments are betting on festive and culinary programmes in the heart of winter, such as Christmas offerings that combine music, dining and excursions to markets in nearby cities. These are small examples, but they reflect a determination to turn the traditionally quiet months into a genuine business opportunity.
Another aspect deserving attention is the role of cities and rural areas. Municipalities that rely on short-haul and low-season tourism can become the big winners if public policy supports them with transport, accommodation and coordinated promotion. Saturated territories, by contrast, will need regulatory instruments, earmarked levies and more transparent communication with their residents to keep their social licence. Recent experience shows that no strategy works without the backing of the people who live in the destination, which is why citizen participation is again at the centre of the European debate.
Businesses have work to do as well. Hotels, restaurants and activity operators will have to adapt their offer to customers who travel outside the summer months, with different expectations about weather, opening hours and services. Those who can design autumn and winter products, from gastronomy to cultural and wellness tourism, will be better placed once de-seasonalisation takes hold.
The data agenda is equally important. Sharing comparable tourism statistics among member states would let regions anticipate peaks, plan transport and allocate staff more efficiently. Small destinations, which often lack their own research capacity, stand to gain the most from common indicators, because they could benchmark themselves against similar places and prove their case when seeking investment.
For managers, the message is clear. Growing is no longer enough; what matters is where and when tourists arrive. Spreading demand better across space and the calendar eases pressure on residents and infrastructure, improves the quality of employment and lets lesser-known territories benefit from tourism. If the Commission's strategy turns into concrete, funded measures, Europe could show that it is possible to keep its world leadership without sacrificing coexistence or the environment.
