The international arrivals figure makes the reading harder still. The United States will welcome 67.8 million foreign visitors this year, 14.6 per cent fewer than in 2019, when it reached 79.4 million. Meanwhile, other destinations have moved clearly ahead of that same reference year. France stands 23.1 per cent above its pre-pandemic level, with 111.9 million arrivals; Spain is up 27.7 per cent, at 106.6 million; and Japan is 40.7 per cent higher, at 44.9 million. The report cautions, however, that arrivals and spending are different measures and that these numbers say nothing about how much visitors spend in those three countries.
Globally the picture is brighter. Worldwide international arrivals are projected at 1.64 billion, 11.7 per cent more than the 1.47 billion recorded in 2019. Yet the American share of the long-haul market is expected to have dropped to 7.7 per cent this year from 10.3 per cent seven years ago, and could fall to 7.1 per cent by 2030 if nothing changes. In other words, world tourism is growing, but the United States is not riding that wave.
The impact goes beyond statistics. Industry leaders point out that in New York City, international visitors accounted for about half of tourism spending in 2025, supporting 397,000 jobs and 7.5 billion dollars in tax revenue. Nationwide, the sector sustains more than fifteen million jobs and around 92 billion dollars in state and local taxes. Any sustained decline in foreign visitors therefore translates directly into employment and public income.
Against this backdrop, the industry holds on to an ambitious goal for 2030: reaching one hundred million international visitors a year, which could add some 68 billion dollars in annual spending and more than 350,000 jobs. It is worth stressing that this is a target, not a forecast. To move closer to it, the sector is calling for policies that make visas easier, shorten waits at the border and restore the country's image as a welcoming destination.
There is also a reputational dimension. Surveys and industry commentary have repeatedly linked international hesitancy to the cost of the trip, to visa processing times and to the sense of uncertainty at entry points. Destinations that communicate clearly, keep procedures predictable and invest in welcome tend to win loyalty, whereas those that add friction see visitors quietly look elsewhere.
For tour operators and hoteliers in the United States, the next twelve months will therefore be as much about perception as about pricing, and the sector hopes that a competitive offer and a smoother arrival experience can begin to turn the figures around.
Finally, the numbers underline how closely the American outlook is tied to global events and exchange rates. A strong currency and higher prices make the country less attractive to price-sensitive travellers from Europe and Asia, who can now find comparable experiences closer to home at a lower cost.
The lesson for the rest of the world is twofold. On the one hand, competing destinations have an obvious opportunity to capture long-haul demand that the planet's biggest travel market is not retaining. On the other, the American case is a reminder that growth in arrivals does not by itself guarantee profitability: when prices soar and the perception of hospitality deteriorates, travellers end up cutting their stay, their budget or their destination. The coming months will show whether Washington and the industry can reverse a trend that, for now, works against one of the world's great tourism hubs.
