The quarterly picture shows a reasonable start and a weaker second leg. From January to March arrivals rose by 2%, but between April and June they slipped by 1%. April fell by 3%, partly because Holy Week began in March, and June lost another 3% year on year. In that last month Western Europe recorded a 6% decline, aggravated by a heat wave in several destinations, while Southeast Asia gave up 5% because of weaker Asian demand, geopolitical tensions and disruption to air transport routed through the Middle East. Some Oceania destinations also suffered the passage of Typhoon Sinlaku, with a 6% drop in June.
The regional picture is highly uneven. Africa leads with growth of 4% in the first half, followed by Europe at 3% and the Americas at 2%, although results varied between subregions. Asia and the Pacific adds 1%, but remains 11% below 2019 levels because of disruption to air connectivity, higher fares and uncertainty weighing on demand within the region itself. Inside it, Northeast Asia grows by 3%, while South Asia loses 5% and Southeast Asia 1%. The most serious case is the Middle East, which plunges 22% as a region directly affected by the war.
It is not all bad news. Disruption to air traffic eased gradually through May and June, after a ceasefire was announced and some routes reopened. Consumer confidence has been recovering, although unevenly from one market to another.
The Secretary-General of UN Tourism, Shaikha Al Nuwais, has acknowledged that the sector is bearing considerable pressure. In her assessment she stresses that the situation in the Middle East has had repercussions on destinations far from the region, and presents it as a reminder that resilience has to be built everywhere and not only once a crisis breaks out. The message is aimed at governments and businesses alike: prepare contingency plans, diversify source markets and strengthen connectivity before the next blow arrives.
For European destinations, the half-year result is a modest ray of light. Growing 3% in an adverse context shows the strength of their offer, but the setback in Western Europe in June warns that extreme heat and high prices can erode demand in the middle of the season. For Asian markets the reading is different: the post-pandemic recovery has not yet been completed and depends largely on air routes returning to normal and fares being kept in check.
Beyond the numbers, the barometer leaves a clear lesson: tourism is an activity extraordinarily sensitive to geopolitics and energy, and its strength depends on how well its players adapt. Airlines, hotels, operators and public administrations will have to keep innovating to sustain travellers' confidence in an environment that, for now, offers no certainties. In practical terms, travellers are advised to plan early and stay flexible, because fares and routes can change at short notice, and businesses are urged to keep reserves for lean months.
