Beyond that one-off circumstance, the organisation's leaders point to two underlying causes. The first is geopolitical instability in the Middle East, whose consequences are felt far beyond the region: it makes some air routes more expensive or complicated, unsettles travellers and weighs on booking decisions even for destinations that lie geographically distant from the conflict. The second is the general rise in the cost of travelling, which affects the price of tickets, accommodation and everyday life in the places visited, just as many households are looking more closely at their budgets.
Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nowais summed up the situation in a phrase already circulating among professionals in the sector: tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile. In saying so, she stressed that the figures remain positive in absolute terms, although the safety margin is shrinking and any new shock could turn stagnation into decline. Her remark has become a convenient shorthand for the mood among industry leaders.
The report also anticipates a change in travellers' habits. With prices high and the economy uncertain, many people can be expected to choose nearby destinations or holidays within their own country rather than embark on long-haul journeys. That trend would benefit domestic and regional tourism, but it would put pressure on destinations that rely on distant markets, on airlines with large intercontinental networks and on operators specialising in high-budget travel.
For companies and public authorities, the message is clear. Diversifying source markets, courting the nearby visitor and improving the balance between price and experience are emerging as essential tools for navigating an unpredictable environment. The ability to communicate transparently, to offer flexible bookings and to strengthen service quality also gains weight, because a traveller who spends more cautiously is also a more demanding one.
It is worth remembering that moderate growth is not the same as a crisis. Many local economies depend on tourism to sustain jobs, commerce and services, and a slower pace can be manageable if it is handled realistically. What this year's balance sheet reminds us is that the sector's expansion is not guaranteed and that it depends on political stability, affordable access to transport and citizens' confidence to plan a trip.
The coming months will be decisive. The autumn and winter season, early bookings for 2027 and the evolution of open conflicts will determine whether the slowdown remains a pause or lasts longer than expected. In the meantime, the industry is watching every indicator closely and preparing for a scenario in which travelling will remain a widely shared desire, but also a more considered decision than ever. Few professionals expect a sudden rebound, and most are planning budgets, capacity and marketing with prudence rather than optimism.
