Jordan was shaken on 23 October by a shooting at a church in the Karak governorate, which led the United Kingdom and Canada to issue new advice. Canadian officials reported casualties and said operations to find those responsible were continuing, adding that visitors should expect extra security checkpoints. Petra, Wadi Rum and the Dead Sea remain open, but the incident adds pressure on a country whose economy depends heavily on visitors.
In the United Arab Emirates, the situation combines security and environmental concerns. The United States keeps the country at its third advisory level, urging travellers to reconsider trips. Air France-KLM extended its suspension of Dubai flights through 31 October, and Cathay Pacific postponed the return of certain Dubai services until January 2027. On 24 October, Ras Al Khaimah closed its beaches after an offshore oil leak, and Umm Al Quwain and Sharjah took precautionary measures. The cause of the spill had not been established at the time of reporting.
Qatar and Israel also remain at the United States' third level of advice, and in Israel thousands of people demonstrated in Tel Aviv on 24 October, three days before a parliamentary election. The United Nations tourism agency had already warned earlier this year that regional conflict, expensive oil and fuel shortages could cut global growth by one to two percentage points below forecasts, and the autumn developments appear to confirm that risk.
The consequences are not shared equally. Large hotel groups with global portfolios can absorb a bad quarter in one region, but independent hoteliers, guides, drivers and restaurant owners rarely have that cushion. In many Middle Eastern destinations these small businesses make up most of the tourism economy, and a few months of cancellations can leave lasting damage.
Governments differ in how they describe the same risks, and travellers are left to compare conflicting messages. Insurers, tour operators and travel advisers are therefore becoming the practical filter, deciding which itineraries are sold and which are postponed. Analysts consider three paths for 2027: diplomatic stabilisation, a prolonged period of managed instability, or wider escalation.
Travel advisers report that clients increasingly ask about flexible bookings and cancellation insurance before choosing a Gulf destination, and some are shifting their plans to North Africa, Southern Europe or Asia. This redistribution of demand is already visible in the strategies of airlines, which move aircraft to routes where bookings are more stable and leave empty slots in the markets affected by the crisis.
Event organisers, airlines and cruise lines are meanwhile reviewing contingency plans, including alternative airports, flexible dates and rebooking policies. Such preparations are costly, but they have become part of doing business in a region where conditions can change within days.
For now, Gulf hubs such as Dubai, Doha and Riyadh continue to function and attract demand, but their reliance on air connections is both a strength and a weakness. A single airport closure can reroute thousands of passengers. The coming weeks will show whether the region can protect its reputation for safety, and whether airlines return to the routes they have paused.
